What does Budget 2026 mean for SMEs? Our +MORE Ambassador Jehan Casinader highlights the key trends and opportunities you need to know.
If one thing was clear from the outset of this Budget, it was Nicola Willis’ pledge that there would be no “sugar hits”.
Coco Pops and Fruit Loops were clearly off the table. But you can’t even describe this as the “Special K Budget” or the “Light & Tasty Budget”.
Let’s be honest: it’s the “Weet-Bix Budget”. Dry, beige and bland… but it’ll fill us up and keep us going.
The Government had spent weeks signalling what we already knew: the books were tight, the Iran war has thrown a spanner in the works, and we shouldn’t expect any dramatic new spending.
Even so, many commentators were convinced that the Finance Minister would pull a symbolic rabbit out of her hat. In an election year, one exciting policy – attractive to a large chunk of “mainstream” New Zealand – would help to instil some confidence.
Alas, the cupboard was bare. Willis didn’t have spare cash to indulge in any shameless vote-buying, even though we’re less than six months from polling day.
Willis announced a significant cash injection into roads, rail and other infrastructure. These projects will generate jobs and stimulate regional economies. They may also help (albeit modestly) to shrink New Zealand’s $100 to $200 billion infrastructure deficit.
The biggest single investment: $1.8 billion for an extension of the Waikato Expressway. Along with that, 232 classrooms, new police stations, courthouses, social housing projects, hospital buildings and hefty rail upgrades.
Even if you don’t work directly in any of these sectors, your business may benefit from the economic activity these projects generate. Many will require significant input from the private sector to get off the ground.
The usual big-ticket sectors received new funding, with health and education predictably the largest winners.
What’s changed is an increasing focus on defence. In an unstable world, more money will be spent on drone systems, ship maintenance and modernisation of the naval fleet. With $1.58 billion of extra spending announced, there will be greater commercial opportunities for businesses that serve the defence and intelligence sector.
Then, there was a smattering of smaller announcements. Banks are being hit with a $209 million levy. That sounds significant, but it’s a mere fraction of the profits New Zealand’s major banks are generating.
Willis clearly had her heart set on one big headline: New Zealand is on track for a forecast $2.6 billion surplus for the 2028/29 financial year.
That forecast relies on some massive assumptions, relating to the global geopolitical environment, inflation, and our ability to increase economic growth.
The past five years have taught us that politicians’ fiscal plans may look rosy on paper, but unforeseen events can make a mockery of those projections.
Many analysts argue that New Zealand’s overall level of government spending remains wholly unsustainable – and even irresponsible.
With three parties in the coalition, Willis needed to balance economic priorities with political priorities, and allocate enough money to the spending requests of NZ First and ACT.
But the Budget left us in no doubt that things will be tight for the foreseeable future.
I pored over the Budget documents, looking for any announcements that would significantly benefit SMEs. Yes, there were a few nuggets – like simplifying fringe benefit tax rules for private vehicles, and a loan guarantee scheme to help businesses move away from gas.
But the Budget was devoid of imaginative, game-changing initiatives to stimulate SME activity.
The Government could have increased the GST threshold, accelerated depreciation across assets, provided incentives for AI implementation, or offered greater assistance for businesses looking to export. In the current climate, that kind of support is not going to appear.
For business owners and leaders, the message is simple: don’t expect Nicola Willis to send the cavalry. Take responsibility for the factors within your control.
The mood of this Budget is one of restraint. That mood doesn’t stay in Wellington. It travels.
Right now, nearly 9,000 core public service jobs are at risk – but no one knows who will get the axe. That means around 60,000 workers are anxious and uncertain about their futures.
They won’t go out and spend. They’ll delay the new car, defer the renovation and put the holiday on pause. That caution ripples outward to all the businesses that rely on them.
But that doesn’t mean commercial opportunities have evaporated. Smart businesses aren’t sitting around waiting for confidence to return. They’re adapting how they sell.
Right now, consumers are looking for reassurance. When they spend money, they want to be certain about their investment. Have they secured the best price? Will they receive the value they expect? Is now the best time to buy?
In a cautious market, you don’t necessarily need to be more persuasive – you need to provide comfort. You can do this by communicating well, reducing perceived risk, helping customers to understand the cost of not acting, and making it easier for them to say yes.
On a macro level, the Government has just announced billions in future spending. This will generate economic activity in a range of areas, with New Zealand suppliers typically preferred for Crown contracts.
The public sector restructure will inevitably create private sector demand. When agencies merge and thousands of roles change, organisations need external expertise they no longer have in-house – in areas like consulting, change management, technology and training.
Almost every business can position itself to benefit from some of these emerging opportunities.
In fact, for some firms, the next 12 months could be busier than you expect – but only if you’re curious, open and agile.
But make no mistake: we’re going to be eating Weet-Bix for a while yet.
+MORE Ambassador Jehan Casinader is a public speaker, communications coach and small business owner. Connect with him on LinkedIn to share your story or insights.
Talk to the +MORE team about how the Budget could impact your SME, and where new opportunities may emerge.
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