Business Confidence Has Surged. Should You Be Paying Attention?

If there’s one consistent message emerging from New Zealand’s recent economic data and commentary, it’s that confidence is returning. Property activity is stabilising, businesses are revisiting investment plans, and surveys are reporting stronger sentiment, all pointing to an economy that is gaining momentum after several challenging years.

The latest ANZ Business Outlook survey adds further weight to that view. Headline business confidence jumped from 36.6 in June to 56.1 in July, while expected own business activity rose from 36.9 to 49.3. Employment intentions nearly doubled, investment intentions strengthened, and export expectations climbed sharply, with manufacturers recording their strongest export outlook since 2000. By almost every measure, businesses appear considerably more optimistic about the year ahead than they were only a month ago.

Those results are significant, not simply because of where they sit today, but because confidence often tells us something about where businesses intend to go next. Unlike GDP figures or inflation data, confidence surveys are inherently forward-looking. They capture expectations, and expectations frequently influence decision-making well before the broader economic statistics catch up.

Historically, confidence has often improved before a recovery becomes visible in financial results. Business owners start planning before they start spending. They begin exploring opportunities before they commit capital. Customers become more willing to make decisions before increased activity shows up in the official numbers. In many ways, confidence can provide an early indication that momentum is beginning to build.

That’s why the latest ANZ survey is encouraging. While a stronger outlook doesn’t automatically guarantee stronger performance, it does suggest that business owners are becoming more willing to look beyond the uncertainty that has characterised much of the past two years and start focusing on growth again.

Across the +MORE network, we’re certainly seeing evidence of that shift. More conversations are centred around growth than they were 12 months ago. Strategic planning discussions are becoming more ambitious. Owners are revisiting investment opportunities that may have felt too risky a year ago, and expansion plans that were previously deferred are being reconsidered.

What’s particularly interesting is that many of these conversations are taking place before conditions are perfect. Most business owners recognise that challenges such as cost pressures, labour constraints and margin management haven’t suddenly disappeared. What appears to be changing is confidence in the ability to navigate those challenges successfully while continuing to pursue growth opportunities.

In many cases, business owners understand that opportunities rarely wait until every economic indicator has turned positive. More often, they emerge while confidence is improving and momentum is beginning to build. That’s why many are choosing to revisit strategic priorities today rather than waiting for greater certainty tomorrow.

The strongest businesses continue to apply the same disciplines that helped them navigate more challenging conditions. They understand their numbers, maintain visibility over cashflow and make decisions based on sound information rather than sentiment alone. The difference is that improving confidence allows those disciplines to be directed toward growth rather than simply managing risk.

That may be the most valuable takeaway from the latest ANZ survey. The results are certainly encouraging, but their real significance lies in what they suggest about future business activity. There is a growing willingness to look beyond short-term uncertainty and focus on opportunities for growth, investment and long-term planning.

Now may be the right time to consider what that means for your own business. Whether that involves reviewing growth plans, assessing investment opportunities, improving financial visibility or planning for the next stage of development, those that benefit most from improving conditions are often the ones that start preparing before the opportunity becomes obvious to everyone else.

If confidence is returning to the market, it’s worth asking whether your growth plans are keeping pace with the opportunities that confidence can create. The businesses that benefit most from improving conditions are often those that start planning before the opportunity becomes obvious to everyone else. A +MORE Business Advisor can help you identify opportunities, manage risks and put a plan in place for the next stage of your business journey.

Source: ANZ Business Outlook July 2026